Well, the men with guns, tanks and rockets are making all the headlines again. Whenever I turn on this computer to be greeted by Yahoo! news, I'm mentally flinching at what I might read. As crisis of the international kind go, this is grown up stuff.
I've not read a paper for a few days, getting all my news from Yahoo! and the TV, which is thinner on detail than I would like, leaving certain important questions stubbornly unanswered.
Like why did Hizbollah capture those soldiers? In aid of what? Why now? Did they look at what happened after the Palestinian kidnapping and think, yeah, I'll have a bit of that. Was it just that they were a bit bored after the World Cup? Did they think, I know, we'll do this and Israel will just roll over and give us everything we want, hee hee hee!
I mean, it seems a willfully blind and utterly stupid thing to have done. Last time I looked I was no expert on affairs in the Middle East, but even I could have told you that if you do this to Israel, Israel is going to come thundering after you. And I'm pretty much guessing that Hezbollah knew that too. In fact, one might be forgiven for thinking that was the idea.
In short, it has all the feel of a put up job.
And scouting around blogs this morning for more info, I find on the Popinjays a post by Eric "An Iranian Diversion" which draws my attention to this article in the Telegraph from Con Coughlin, who does seem a bit of an expert on affairs in the Middle East.
"However much the Hizbollah leadership might claim to be a legitimate, democratically elected political party, the reality is that it is, and always has been, a proxy of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, who finance, train and equip the militia as a means of maintaining a permanent security challenge to Israel's northern border...
For the ayatollahs in Teheran trying to find a way out of their nuclear difficulties, what better way to divert the world's attention from their nuclear-enrichment programme than to provoke a fresh Middle East crisis between Israel and its neighbours?"
They're such great guys those ayatollahs, aren't they? You just know when Iran gets up to something , it's always for the general benefit of mankind. I mean, the ordinary citizens of the Lebanon just have not suffered enough in recent years, let's stick 'em in a battle between Israel and Hizbollah and see how they get on.
I suppose however we should be relieved by Mr Coughlin's assessment that this need not mean all-out war. Israel's navel blockade, and bombing of the airports and highways are an attempt to stop the kidnapped soldiers being transported to Iran, not aggressive acts of revenge. But there is no argument from me if Israel also wants to permanently 'disrupt' Hizbollah activity on its northern borders while it's at it.
As always though, it is the ordinary people who will suffer. The fact that we are all watching what Israel does next is only testament to the fact that, as ever, whether or not this thing spirals out of control will depend greatly on Israel acting with proportion and some restraint. There's no point in relying on Hizbollah or Iran for that.